Nostradamus

Michel de Nostredame (14 December or 21 December 1503[1] – 2 July 1566), usually Latinized to Nostradamus, was a French apothecary and reputed seer who published collections of prophecies that have since become famous worldwide. He is best known for his book Les Propheties (The Prophecies), the first edition of which appeared in 1555. Since the publication of this book, which has rarely been out of print since his death, Nostradamus has attracted an enthusiastic following who, along with the popular press, credits him with predicting many major world events.

By contrast, most academic sources maintain that the associations made between world events and Nostradamus's quatrains are largely the result of misinterpretations or mistranslations (sometimes deliberate) or else are so tenuous as to render them useless as evidence of any genuine predictive power. Moreover, none of the sources listed offers any evidence that anyone has ever interpreted any of Nostradamus's quatrains specifically enough to allow a clear identification of any event in advance.

Nevertheless, interest in the work of this prominent figure of the French Renaissance is still considerable, especially in in popular culture, and the prophecies have in some cases been assimilated to the results of applying the alleged Bible Code, as well as to other purported prophetic works.

Regression models

Political scientists and economists have employed regression models of past elections to forecast the percent of the two-party vote going to the incumbent party candidate in the next election. Most models consist of between two and seven variables and are estimated over anywhere between scarcely over a dozen elections to close to twice as many. (By contrast, historian Alan Lichtman uses 13 “Keys” to predict whether the incumbents will be reelected.) A common denominator across most quantitative models is at least one measure of economic conditions, although no two employ the same metrics. Also, most models include at least one public opinion variable, a trial heat poll or a presidential approval rating, although here again there is no unanimity on indicators.

prediction is a statement or claim that a particular event will occur in the future in more certain terms than a forecast.

A prediction is a statement or claim that a particular event will occur in the future in more certain terms than a forecast. The etymology of this word is Latin (from præ- "before" plus dicere "to say"). In regards to predicting the future Howard H. Stevenson Says, " Prediction is at least two things: Important and hard." Important, because we have to act, and hard because we have to realize the future we want, and what is the best way to get there.

Outside the rigorous context of science, prediction is often confused with informed guess or opinion.

A prediction of this kind might be valid the predictor is a knowledgeable person in the field and is employing sound reasoning and accurate data. Large corporations invest heavily in this kind of activity to help focus attention on possible events, risks and business opportunities, using futurists. Such work brings together all available past and current data, as a basis on which to develop reasonable expectations about the future.

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